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Cashflow

10-year projection with debt service and DSCR discipline

Cashflow model applies deterministic ramp assumptions (60%/80%/100%), explicit OPEX structure, and standard amortization to stress test financing resilience.

Executive KPI Strip

Debt Amount

MAD 150,000,000

Illustrative debt principal.

Interest Rate

6.2%

Illustrative annual rate.

Tenor

12 years

Standard amortization used.

DSCR Comfort

1.2+

Reference, not guarantee.

Base Scenario Annual Cashflow (MAD)

Revenue, OPEX, EBITDA, debt service, and DSCR.

YearRampRevenueOPEXEBITDADebt ServiceDSCR
Year 160%MAD 52,500,000MAD 39,050,000MAD 13,450,000MAD 18,088,2480.74
Year 280%MAD 70,000,000MAD 49,372,000MAD 20,628,000MAD 18,088,2481.14
Year 3100%MAD 87,500,000MAD 59,697,440MAD 27,802,560MAD 18,088,2481.54
Year 4100%MAD 89,250,000MAD 60,891,389MAD 28,358,611MAD 18,088,2481.57
Year 5100%MAD 91,035,000MAD 62,109,217MAD 28,925,783MAD 18,088,2481.60
Year 6100%MAD 92,855,700MAD 63,351,401MAD 29,504,299MAD 18,088,2481.63
Year 7100%MAD 94,712,814MAD 64,618,429MAD 30,094,385MAD 18,088,2481.66
Year 8100%MAD 96,607,070MAD 65,910,798MAD 30,696,273MAD 18,088,2481.70
Year 9100%MAD 98,539,212MAD 67,229,013MAD 31,310,198MAD 18,088,2481.73
Year 10100%MAD 100,509,996MAD 68,573,594MAD 31,936,402MAD 18,088,2481.77

Revenue and EBITDA Trend

DSCR Trend

Illustrative DSCR profile under base-case assumptions.

Debt Service Amortization (MAD)

Interest, principal, and remaining debt balance.

YearInterestPrincipalDebt ServiceEnding Debt
Year 1MAD 9,300,000MAD 8,788,248MAD 18,088,248MAD 141,211,752
Year 2MAD 8,755,129MAD 9,333,119MAD 18,088,248MAD 131,878,633
Year 3MAD 8,176,475MAD 9,911,773MAD 18,088,248MAD 121,966,860
Year 4MAD 7,561,945MAD 10,526,303MAD 18,088,248MAD 111,440,557
Year 5MAD 6,909,315MAD 11,178,933MAD 18,088,248MAD 100,261,624
Year 6MAD 6,216,221MAD 11,872,027MAD 18,088,248MAD 88,389,597
Year 7MAD 5,480,155MAD 12,608,093MAD 18,088,248MAD 75,781,504
Year 8MAD 4,698,453MAD 13,389,795MAD 18,088,248MAD 62,391,709
Year 9MAD 3,868,286MAD 14,219,962MAD 18,088,248MAD 48,171,747
Year 10MAD 2,986,648MAD 15,101,600MAD 18,088,248MAD 33,070,147

Interpretation Notes

How to read the model without overclaiming outcomes.

10-Year Cashflow Approach

The model uses deterministic annual projections with explicit ramp-up and scenario controls. It is designed for decision support, not as a guarantee.

Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

DSCR = EBITDA / Debt Service

  • A DSCR above 1.2 is generally treated as a comfort threshold by many lenders.
  • Early years may remain below target during ramp-up, then improve at stabilization.
  • Sensitivity checks are required before final debt structuring.

Interpretation Guidance

  • Year 1 and Year 2 should be read as commissioning and market-acquisition years.
  • Stabilization from Year 3 onward depends on operations quality and tenant retention.
  • Debt structure should match ramp timing to avoid avoidable covenant pressure.